We are back for more betting picks in the final week of the NFL regular season. The beneficial thing about week 18 is that we get a full slate of divisional matchups. Unfortunately, that does mean we have fewer games to bet on in the AFC West. Additionally, this week presents a challenge as numerous teams are resting their stars in preparation for the playoffs. However, there is still value, so let’s look at this week’s picks.
All lines and odds come via DraftKings.
AFC West: Betting Week 18 Matchups
Chiefs @ Broncos
Over 39.5 Total Points (-112)
Chiefs +10.5 (-112)
Longest Made Field Goal Over 48.5 Yards (-105)
Denver being heavily favored might seem odd, but remember that they are playing for a playoff spot, while Kansas City has nothing to play for. Expect to see many of the Chiefs starters, such as Patrick Mahomes, getting the week off. That being said, this game will likely be much closer than the oddsmakers expect.
While some Chiefs players will be resting, others may suit up with significant money on the line. Additionally, I find it hard to believe that Denver is more than 10 points superior to even a heavily handicapped Chiefs team. Look for backup Carson Wentz to turn this one into a bit of a shootout, which is why I like the over on top of Kansas City covering. Finally, consider betting on a field goal over 48 yards at the league’s most kicker-friendly stadium.
Chargers @ Raiders
Chargers’ First Drive to Result in a Punt (+130)
Brock Bowers to Have 9+ Receptions (+185)
Raiders ML (+200)
Like the Chiefs, the Chargers do not have a ton to play for this week either. Currently ranked as the sixth seed, they cannot fall any lower. Los Angeles could move up to the fifth seed with a win IF the Steelers lose on Saturday (something to keep an eye on), but that is it. Meanwhile, the Raiders have been playing some inspired football as of late. That may have to do with the fact that much of the roster is playing for new contracts.
These factors lead me to predict a straight-up victory for the Raiders this week. A big reason for Las Vegas’ recent success has been the defense coming together despite a rash of injuries. Take +130 on the Chargers to punt on their first drive. Another important factor is rookie sensation Brock Bowers. The tight end out of Georgia has a chance to break yet another record this week. Bowers needs nine more catches to surpass Zach Ertz for most receptions in a season by a tight end. You can bet on him to get it for some nice value at +185.
This matchup in general offers a ton of value to take advantage of.
*Top Photo: Getty Images
AFC West Notes: Will Chargers Play Starters In Week 18? Plus, Latest Raiders Mock Drafts
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